samedi 17 juin 2017


My first online game (I mean, as an author)...

Pasta! is a match-3 puzzle game.
Free of charge, no in-app payment.
Link on the image or here.
Work in permanent progress.
20 levels available so far.
Under the hood: Gnoga.

Enjoy! Caution: high-carb, addictive contents!

jeudi 8 juin 2017

Up, up, up!

Here is a firework of charts that should speak for themselves...

We begin with the Bitcoin:

Then, ladies and gentlemen: the FANGA team (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Google, Apple):

Click to enlarge

Note that AMZN and GOOGL have reached the 1000$ level almost together. Wow! Congratulations (to the sellers)!

Now, the Dow Jones index, monitored by a very famous Twitter user:

We are a bit plateau-ing here, but still 18% above the "big, fat, ugly bubble" level.
A plateau is bad. People could become hesitant. "We have to go up, up, up"!
Here a zoom out:

The hundreds of billions created and injected every month in the markets by central banks are helpful, of course, for maintaining the uptrend.

Here, a small contributor - but direct buyer of US and European shares - the Swiss National Bank.

Here in logarithmic scale (doubling at each row up):

Two remarks about this:
  • Since last August, the SNB owns more publicly-traded shares in Facebook than Mark Zuckerberg! Source here.
  • The production of central-bank Swiss francs (the credit-based ones from commercial banks is yet another source of fresh money...) is more than 4 billion monthly on average since 2008. Each monthly injection could be enough to finance a bunch of fighter jets, a major tunnel, a social security gap... This for 113 months now!
Not only central banks contribute to the stock market records. There are share buybacks (companies buying their own shares, often with borrowed money) and margin debt (debt directly used for speculation):

Now, you may have some vertigo with all these steep curves.

So, here a flat one - Japan's inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index:

Better ? I have even decreasing curves: central-bank and government yields over time for different durations, from overnight to 30 years (back to Switzerland):

and mortgage rates (fixed-rate 5-year & 10-year mortgage rates of a certain bank, but the other ones follow the same trend):

Happy, now ?

mardi 9 mai 2017

Avindex 1.0, the Big Mac(ron) edition

Stock markets celebrated the election of Emmanuel Macron with VIX (implied volatility index) close to record lows, below 10.

On the big picture of financial markets, this was the main contributor to the latest overshoot in greed:

mardi 28 février 2017

Dow Jones and the twelve records

Twelve records in a row - and not only records, but "numbers that's never been hit before", so these must be very special records 😉 !...

Trump Tweet Twists

Here is a bigger picture:

NB: data was grabbed from a chart using our Recurve tool.

And now a really big picture, including debt...

vendredi 10 février 2017

Data and indices, 2017-02-10

A bunch of updated economic data, in charts.

- our home-made greed index (Avindex): we are clearly in the danger zone for stocks and high-yield bonds.

- long term precious metals prices in USD (current or corrected by CPI or M2 values).

- Baltic Dry index, measuring maritime trade. At 707 points it is below the initial value of 1000, more than 30 years ago!

- Japan Consumer Price Index (CPI) - a chart that is not shown very often. The obvious reason is that it invalidates the legend of the "Japanese Deflation" specter heard from many mainstream economists and other spin doctors.

- USD Libor interest rates: they are still very low, but back to end-2009 levels. How high can they
go before it hurts ?

- US trade balance: trade deficit is still pretty large - will president Trump be able to reverse this situation ?

- Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil barrel price: until mid-2014 it was stabilizing at ~100, then crashed, and now beginning to stabilize at ~50. What's next ?

mercredi 25 janvier 2017

BNS décembre 2016

Résumé de la production de monnaie de la Banque Nationale Suisse (BNS) pour le seul mois de décembre 2016:
  • 6.5 milliards de francs créés à partir de l'air pur des Alpes - cela correspondrait par exemple à un chèque de 812 francs par habitant, ou alors à la moitié du coût du chantier du siècle, le tunnel de base du Gothard, le plus long tunnel ferroviaire du monde.
  • De ces 6.5 nouveaux milliards2.8 ont été imprimés physiquement sous forme de billets - là, on est proche du record mensuel. Imaginez l'émeute si la BNS avait distribué pour Noël des enveloppes, de 350 francs chacune, en tout-ménages, dans toutes les boîtes aux lettres, de Genève à Romanshorn!
Autant dire que les affaires d'Orell Füssli (l'entreprise qui imprime les billets) doivent être florissantes. On plaint les pauvres rotatives. En tout cas, vérifiez que l'encre est bien sèche quand vous allez au bancomat!

Pourvu que ça dure! Si un beau jour quelqu'un fait le calcul (en comparant aux valeurs 2007) et se rend compte qu'on a vendu le même ticket à dix personnes différentes, ça va être amusant...

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My first online game (I mean, as an author)... Pasta! is a match-3 puzzle game. Free of charge, no in-app payment. Link on the ima...