samedi 19 décembre 2015

The foam bath - current bubbles - update #2

Here is my list of bubbles (update from that article, from Dec. 2014), with some updates in color.
  • Leveraged loans (added) : with the doubling of Fed fund rates 3 days ago, there could be some fun in this $4.6 Trillion market... read more in the article: "Will $4.6 Trillion Leveraged Loan Market Cause The Next Financial Crisis?" [link]
  • Japan public debt and the yen (currency devaluation likelier than debt restructuring)
  • [Bursting] Shale oil companies: they always produced at a loss, the break-even price being at least 150$ per barrel [link 1]; now losses going faster due to oil prices under 80$ 70$ 40$) - more links about oil and the shale scam [link 2],[link 3]
  • [About to burst] Junk bonds (positive-language name: high-yield bonds) [link 1][link 2] (repackaged at record pace into AAA-rated CDO's / CLO's [link 3] !)
  • Tech companies (especially those speculating on their own shares with new debt)
  • Stocks (most) (reason: record margin debt [source], companies speculating on their own shares with borrowed money, rush of small investors channeled into the stock market by negative real interest rates on deposits or on bonds)
  • Bonds (most bonds, especially government bonds)
  • Real estate in "hot" places around the world
  • Auto loans (especially subprime)
  • US student loans
  • Home equity loans

Mathpaqs release 19-Dec-2015

New Mathpaqs release, available @ http://mathpaqs.sf.net/

  • Added Gamma special function: see new Gamma_function package; code courtesy of Stephen L. Moshier
  • Added Normal_inverse_CDF to random functions - as alternative to the Box-Muller method producing a pair of independent normal-distributed variables

samedi 12 décembre 2015

Avindex 1.0, snapshot #7, Junk Bonds edition


This time, the junk bonds (oops, sorry, the high-yield bonds) are in the spotlight.
A few junk bond ETFs:

JNK (SPDR Barclays Capital High Yield Bnd ETF):


HYG (iShares iBoxx $ High Yid Corp Bond ETF):

BNS février 2017