mardi 12 décembre 2017

Bitcoin (and Swiss Franc) manias

Currently there is a crypto-mania (mostly around Bitcoin), no doubt about it.
But let's put things into perspective.

The following chart compares two monetary bubbles - the central money bubble of the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Bitcoin, represented by its market capitalization in US Dollars (USD). Since currently 1 CHF is almost 1 USD, we can put both market capitalizations on the same chart:

Click to enlarge

Let's compare some similarities and differences between Bitcoins and Central bank francs.


- Counterparty: none for both - only fame and trust. Both are purely virtual!

- Why hoarding Bitcoins or Swiss francs ? Because other people do! If people begin to spend or sell BTC's or CHF's, their value will collapse.

- The trigger to inflate those bubbles is the mistrust about EUR, USD and other currencies following different crises of the last decade, ballooning government debt, currency debasing, negative real interest rates (ironically the buyers of CHF are naive enough to ignore that, for the two last points, the same is happening with the CHF!).


- Money creation:
  • BTC: Bitcoins are "mined" on computers, using lots of electricity
  • M0 CHF: Central bank francs need a mouse click and a few keystrokes for ~95% of them; ~5% are printed. So the effort of creating money is minimal compared to Bitcoin (a bit scary if you are living in Switzerland...)
- Storage:
  • BTC: 100% electronic
  • M0 CHF: ~95% electronic, ~5% paper
- Control of money supply:
  • BTC: Limited by design to 21 Million; but forks (Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Gold) and creation of other cryptocurrencies (1340 currencies so far) challenge that limit.
  • M0 CHF: Unlimited, but reversible: theoretically the Swiss National Bank (SNB) could repurchase the extra 450 Billion francs by selling its reserves in foreign currency stocks and bonds, and could "destroy" those francs. However, now that the SNB reserve fund has the size of a massive worldwide hedge fund, such a selling would have a significant downward effect on prices, or could even trigger a selloff. That could complicate the reduction of money supply: finally, the SNB could be left with a disturbing gap between reserves and money supply...
- How the bubbles inflate:
  • BTC: due to limited supply, the exchange rates soar explosively
  • CHF: the SNB augment the supply explosively in order to control the exchange rate

dimanche 10 décembre 2017

Avindex 1.0, 2017-12-10

Obviously 2017 could be labelled "back in the hot zone".

(click to enlarge)

jeudi 7 décembre 2017

L'effet Philishave

Qu'il est fascinant de contempler des taux négatifs!

La fourchette actuelle (extrémités des courbes à droite sur le graphique) est de -1% (journalier) à 0.42% (obligations à 30 ans) en passant par 0% (10 ans).
Osons le rappeler, ces taux négatifs sont gênants, mais représentent peu de chose par rapport à l'inflation de la monnaie centrale.
Les taux négatifs constituent la partie "soulever le poil" de l'effet Philishave - l'excès d'offre s'occupera de la partie "couper"...

mardi 28 novembre 2017

1 Bitcoin = 10,000 US Dollars ?

...seems to be imminent.

Impressive how well the price is correlated with the rumor (here, measured with Google Trends).
The bitcoin bubble amounts to $166 Billion, according to this site, which sums the crypto bubbles to $309 Billion.
Scary ? These are still baby bubbles.
What about the "Swiss franc coin" bubble (the central bank money created since 2008) ?
Around $500 Billion.

Amazon ? Well above $500 Billion.
And let's not forget the other, bigger, Trillion-size bubbles (real estate, student loans, auto loans, ...).

Enjoy the day!

samedi 28 octobre 2017

Silly Abbreviation Generator (SAG)

An overdue feature (better said: a low-hanging fruit) of the Corporate Bullshit Generator is the Silly Abbreviation Generator (SAG). Now, finally, it is in, and online!

Granular Leadership Development Systems (LDS) lead to opportunity pipelines.
The Chief Client Relationship Officer (CCRO) transgenerates our movable business models by thinking and acting beyond boundaries.
As a result, investor confidence, evolution and responsive design invigorate the Chief Branding Technologist (CBT).
The Chief Internal Audit Officer (CIAO) strategizes incentives, while intellect, delivery framework and discipline influence our review cycles.
Pursuing this route will enable us to manage our key differentiator, while the Chief Digital Marketing Technologist (CDMT) takes control of an efficient, high-priority, values congruence. 
The Chief Value Added Services Officer (CVASO) reinvests in our innovations. 

Under the hood: as for the rest of the Bullshit Generator, the SAG is done in a functional and recursive way:

function Silly_Abbreviation_Generator_SAG (X : String) return String is space : Natural; begin if X'Length = 0 then return ""; end if; space := Index (X, " "); if space > X'First then return X (X'First) & Silly_Abbreviation_Generator_SAG (X (space + 1 .. X'Last)); end if; return (1 => X (X'First)); end Silly_Abbreviation_Generator_SAG;

dimanche 24 septembre 2017

Zip-Ada presentations about Deflate & LZMA

Here are two presentations about recent developments in Zip-Ada (newly programmed Deflate and LZMA encoders):

Click to watch the presentation

Click to watch the presentation

Bitcoin (and Swiss Franc) manias

Currently there is a crypto-mania (mostly around Bitcoin), no doubt about it. But let's put things into perspective. The followin...